Uncover the monsoon forecast impact: El Nino concerns food producers in Asia with hot, dry weather. American growers anticipate relief from severe drought through heavy summer rains.
Pakistan and India are already experiencing soil drying, which is expected to hinder summer crop planting. Additionally, South Asia’s crucial monsoon season from June to September is predicted to be less impactful due to the effects of El Nino.
According to Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at US-based Maxar, Australia is facing a prolonged dry spell until at least August. India’s seasonal outlook also suggests a weaker monsoon for the entire country, extending into Pakistan.
El Nino, characterized by the warming of water surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is anticipated to develop in the coming months. It typically brings hot and dry weather to Asia and Australia, while causing heavier-than-normal rainfall in the southern regions of the US and South America.
The looming El Nino poses threats to wheat output in Australia, the second-largest exporter of the grain. Dry weather is likely to impact palm oil and rice production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand as well, as forecasters and analysts have stated.
Lower production of cereals and oilseeds in Asia due to El Nino could increase concerns about food inflation among vulnerable consumers globally. This situation dashes hopes for further relief from the lower food prices observed in recent months.
Even if the weather pattern boosts crop output in the Americas, its impact on Asia may still reverberate across global food markets. While wheat prices have fallen to two-and-a-half-year lows this week, corn and soybeans have also eased from the multi-year peaks seen in 2022 when world supplies were disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war and Covid.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has released its outlook for June, July, and August, indicating below-normal rainfall for most parts of the country. However, certain areas in the northern regions might experience slightly higher rainfall than usual during this year’s monsoon season. Normal rainfall levels are expected in the western parts, including coastal areas of Balochistan.
Towards the end of the monsoon season, Upper Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B), and Balochistan may observe increased rainfall. The rise in temperature may accelerate the melting of snow in the mountains of K-P, G-B, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, potentially leading to excessive water flow in rivers.
With low rainfall and high temperatures during this season, drought-like conditions are anticipated. Agriculture might face challenges due to gradually decreasing soil moisture levels. Additional irrigation may be necessary in the southern part of the country to sustain the growth of kharif crops and vegetables.
These forecasts raise concerns about water availability, agricultural productivity, and overall environmental conditions in the affected regions. Farmers and policymakers should take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential impact of reduced rainfall. These measures may include implementing efficient irrigation practices and exploring alternative water sources. Reuters
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